Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

(2015) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet.

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Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1 in 1990 to 31·2 in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: acute disease; acute hepatitis A; acute hepatitis B; acute otitis media; Africa south of the Sahara; anemia; Article; bacterial skin disease; biliary tract disease; burn; cataract; Chagas disease; chickenpox; chlamydiasis; chronic disease; chronic kidney disease; chronic obstructive lung disease; chronic respiratory tract disease; communicable disease; comorbidity; congenital disorder; dengue; dental caries; developed country; developing country; diabetes mellitus; diarrhea; digestive system disease; disability; genital herpes; glucose 6 phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency; gonorrhea; heart disease; hemolytic anemia; hepatitis C; hepatitis E; human; Human immunodeficiency virus infection; hypertension; incidence; injury; intellectual impairment; interstitial nephritis; iron deficiency anemia; ischemic heart disease; low back pain; lower respiratory tract infection; major depression; malaria; malignant neoplastic disease; maternal hypertension; mortality; musculoskeletal disease; neurologic disease; newborn disease; non communicable disease; osteoarthritis; otitis media; ovary polycystic disease; pelvic organ prolapse; periodontal disease; population growth; premenstrual syndrome; prevalence; priority journal; puerperal infection; refraction error; rheumatoid arthritis; schistosomiasis; sickle cell trait; simulation; substance abuse; systematic review (topic); tension headache; thalassemia; tooth pain; traffic accident; trichomoniasis; tropical disease; typhoid fever; upper respiratory tract infection; urinary tract infection; uterus myoma; visual impairment; acute disease; adolescent; adult; age distribution; aged; child; chronic disease; cost of illness; demography; disabled person; female; health; infant; male; middle aged; Neglected Diseases; newborn; preschool child; sex ratio; statistics and numerical data; very elderly; Wounds and Injuries; young adult, Acute Disease; Adolescent; Adult; Age Distribution; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Child; Child, Preschool; Chronic Disease; Cost of Illness; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Disabled Persons; Female; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Male; Middle Aged; Neglected Diseases; Prevalence; Residence Characteristics; Sex Distribution; Wounds and Injuries; Young Adult
Page Range: pp. 743-800
Journal or Publication Title: The Lancet
Volume: 386
Number: 9995
Identification Number: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4
Depositing User: مهندس جمال محمودپور

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